XFL Elo Projections

Welcome! This page is dedicated XFL elo rankings. The methodology I'm using is based on FiveThirtyEight's pre-2019 NFL elo model. Pre-season ratings were computed based on XFL championship futures from six different sportsbooks. You can read about my pre-season ratings in my post on xflfanzone.net. The difference between two team's ratings is equal to the point spread between those two teams. The home team will also get a 2.6 point home-field advantage. An average team will have a rating of zero. Projections below are based on 10,000 simulations. This page will be updated as games are played.

Last Update: Feb 17 @ 11:05PM EST

Team Rating Playoff % Champion % Expected Wins
#1 DC (2-0) 2.18 79.1% 23.6% 6.5
#2 DAL (1-1) 1.20 65.2% 17.4% 5.4
#3 HOU (2-0) 0.89 76.4% 23.6% 6.1
#4 NY (1-1) 0.15 47.8% 9.5% 5.1
#5 STL (1-1) -0.08 51.9% 10.8% 5.2
#6 TB (0-2) -0.72 21.1% 4.4% 3.8
#7 SEA (1-1) -1.31 43.6% 8.0% 4.7
#8 LA (0-2) -2.32 14.8% 2.5% 3.3

Upcoming Games

Here are my forecasts for this week's XFL games! The length of the bars below reflect win probability and point spread can be found in the parenthesis.

46.5%
53.5%
#3 Houston
At
#6 Tampa Bay(-1.0)
Sat at 2pm on ABC
49.7%
50.3%
#2 Dallas
At
#7 Seattle(-0.1)
Sat at 5pm on FOX
41.5%
58.5%
#4 New York
At
#5 St. Louis(-2.4)
Sun at 3pm on ESPN
56.8%
43.2%
#1 DC(-1.9)
At
#8 Los Angeles
Sun at 6pm on FS1

Team Schedules

Below are my full-season forecasts for each XFL team. Click on each team to expand their schedule.

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @5pm ET
66.1% Fav by 4.7 L 9-15
2 Sun 2/16 @3pm ET
@ 46.9% Dog by 0.9 W 25-18
3 Sat 2/22 @5pm ET
@ 49.7% Dog by 0.1
4 Sun 3/1 @4pm ET
60.3% Fav by 2.9
5 Sat 3/7 @5pm ET
62.9% Fav by 3.7
6 Sun 3/15 @4pm ET
@ 37.4% Dog by 3.6
7 Sat 3/21 @2pm ET
@ 47.6% Dog by 0.7
8 Sun 3/29 @6pm ET
67.6% Fav by 5.1
9 Thu 4/2 @8pm ET
@ 41.8% Dog by 2.3
10 Thu 4/9 @8pm ET
70.7% Fav by 6.1

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @2pm ET
65.8% Fav by 4.5 W 31-19
2 Sat 2/15 @2pm ET
58.9% Fav by 2.5 W 27-0
3 Sun 2/23 @6pm ET
@ 56.8% Fav by 1.9
4 Sun 3/1 @7pm ET
@ 51.1% Fav by 0.3
5 Sun 3/8 @3pm ET
66.8% Fav by 4.9
6 Sun 3/15 @4pm ET
62.6% Fav by 3.6
7 Sun 3/22 @6pm ET
@ 45.3% Dog by 1.3
8 Sat 3/28 @2pm ET
68.8% Fav by 5.5
9 Sat 4/4 @2pm ET
@ 48.0% Dog by 0.6
10 Sun 4/12 @3pm ET
@ 48.8% Dog by 0.3

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @5pm ET
58.7% Fav by 2.5 W 37-17
2 Sun 2/16 @6pm ET
59.0% Fav by 2.5 W 28-24
3 Sat 2/22 @2pm ET
@ 46.5% Dog by 1
4 Sun 3/1 @4pm ET
@ 39.7% Dog by 2.9
5 Sat 3/7 @2pm ET
66.6% Fav by 4.8
6 Sat 3/14 @2pm ET
@ 43.4% Dog by 1.9
7 Sun 3/22 @6pm ET
54.7% Fav by 1.3
8 Sun 3/29 @3pm ET
@ 52.2% Fav by 0.6
9 Thu 4/2 @8pm ET
58.2% Fav by 2.3
10 Sat 4/11 @2pm ET
@ 48.6% Dog by 0.4

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @5pm ET
@ 41.3% Dog by 2.5 L 17-37
2 Sun 2/16 @3pm ET
53.1% Fav by 0.9 L 18-25
3 Sun 2/23 @6pm ET
43.2% Dog by 1.9
4 Sat 2/29 @2pm ET
@ 32.5% Dog by 5.1
5 Sun 3/8 @9pm ET
53.6% Fav by 1
6 Sun 3/15 @7pm ET
@ 37.3% Dog by 3.6
7 Sat 3/21 @5pm ET
@ 33.2% Dog by 4.8
8 Sun 3/29 @3pm ET
47.8% Dog by 0.6
9 Sun 4/5 @6pm ET
55.7% Fav by 1.6
10 Thu 4/9 @8pm ET
@ 29.3% Dog by 6.1

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @2pm ET
55.6% Fav by 1.6 W 23-3
2 Sat 2/15 @2pm ET
@ 41.1% Dog by 2.5 L 0-27
3 Sun 2/23 @3pm ET
@ 41.5% Dog by 2.4
4 Sat 2/29 @2pm ET
67.5% Fav by 5.1
5 Sat 3/7 @5pm ET
@ 37.1% Dog by 3.7
6 Sat 3/14 @2pm ET
56.6% Fav by 1.9
7 Sun 3/22 @3pm ET
@ 45.9% Dog by 1.1
8 Sat 3/28 @5pm ET
60.0% Fav by 2.8
9 Sat 4/4 @2pm ET
52.0% Fav by 0.6
10 Sun 4/12 @6pm ET
@ 43.8% Dog by 1.7

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @2pm ET
@ 34.2% Dog by 4.5 L 19-31
2 Sat 2/15 @5pm ET
51.1% Fav by 0.3 W 17-9
3 Sat 2/22 @5pm ET
50.3% Fav by 0.1
4 Sat 2/29 @5pm ET
@ 36.5% Dog by 3.8
5 Sat 3/7 @2pm ET
@ 33.4% Dog by 4.8
6 Sun 3/15 @7pm ET
62.7% Fav by 3.6
7 Sun 3/22 @3pm ET
54.1% Fav by 1.1
8 Sun 3/29 @6pm ET
@ 32.4% Dog by 5.1
9 Sun 4/5 @6pm ET
@ 44.3% Dog by 1.6
10 Sat 4/11 @2pm ET
51.4% Fav by 0.4

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @5pm ET
@ 33.9% Dog by 4.7 W 15-9
2 Sun 2/16 @6pm ET
@ 41.0% Dog by 2.5 L 24-28
3 Sun 2/23 @3pm ET
58.5% Fav by 2.4
4 Sat 2/29 @5pm ET
63.5% Fav by 3.8
5 Sun 3/8 @3pm ET
@ 33.2% Dog by 4.9
6 Sat 3/14 @5pm ET
@ 43.0% Dog by 2
7 Sat 3/21 @5pm ET
66.8% Fav by 4.8
8 Sat 3/28 @5pm ET
@ 40.0% Dog by 2.8
9 Sun 4/5 @12pm ET
61.5% Fav by 3.2
10 Sun 4/12 @3pm ET
51.2% Fav by 0.3

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @2pm ET
@ 44.4% Dog by 1.6 L 3-23
2 Sat 2/15 @5pm ET
@ 48.9% Dog by 0.3 L 9-17
3 Sat 2/22 @2pm ET
53.5% Fav by 1
4 Sun 3/1 @7pm ET
48.9% Dog by 0.3
5 Sun 3/8 @9pm ET
@ 46.4% Dog by 1
6 Sat 3/14 @5pm ET
57.0% Fav by 2
7 Sat 3/21 @2pm ET
52.4% Fav by 0.7
8 Sat 3/28 @2pm ET
@ 31.2% Dog by 5.5
9 Sun 4/5 @12pm ET
@ 38.5% Dog by 3.2
10 Sun 4/12 @6pm ET
56.2% Fav by 1.7