XFL Elo Projections

Welcome! This page is dedicated XFL Elo rankings. The methodology I'm using is based on FiveThirtyEight's pre-2019 NFL Elo model. Pre-season ratings were computed based on XFL championship futures from six different sportsbooks. You can read about my pre-season ratings in my post on xflfanzone.net. The difference between two team's ratings is equal to the point spread between those two teams. The home team will also get a 2.6 point home-field advantage. An average team will have a rating of zero. Projections below are based on 10,000 simulations. This page will be updated as games are played.

Last Update: Mar 13 @ 11:35AM EDT

Team Rating Playoff % Champion % Expected Wins
#1 HOU (5-0) +3.23 99.4% 44.8% 8.0
#2 NY (3-2) +1.21 64.1% 14.4% 5.8
#3 STL (3-2) +0.50 68.4% 14.0% 5.7
#4 DC (3-2) +0.21 54.9% 10.5% 5.3
#5 DAL (2-3) -0.41 49.8% 7.4% 4.4
#6 LA (2-3) -0.46 41.4% 6.0% 4.4
#7 TB (1-4) -1.07 12.6% 2.0% 3.3
#8 SEA (1-4) -3.21 9.4% 0.9% 2.9

XFL Championship Matchup Odds

The matrix below shows the probability of each possible XFL Championship Game matchup. Teams from the Eastern Conference are along the top and teams from the Western Conference are along the left side. The XFL Championship Game will be played in Houston at 3pm ET on Sunday, April 26th.

4.1% 5.5% 5.8% 0.8%
17.6% 22.8% 24.0% 3.9%
3.7% 4.8% 4.0% 0.8%
0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%

Upcoming Games

Here are my forecasts for this week's XFL games! The length of the bars below reflect win probability and point spread can be found in the parenthesis.

47.9%
52.1%
#1 Houston
At
#2 New York(-0.6)
Sat at 2pm on ABC
46.3%
53.7%
#3 St. Louis
At
#7 Tampa Bay(-1.0)
Sat at 5pm on FS2
38.6%
61.4%
#5 Dallas
At
#4 DC(-3.2)
Sun at 4pm on FS1
50.5%
49.5%
#6 Los Angeles(-0.1)
At
#8 Seattle
Sun at 7pm on ESPN2

Expected Points Added and Success Rate

The two tables below show some advanced metrics for each team. The first is EPA or Expected Points Added. The general goal of an expected points model is to put the production from each play into the appropriate context. This is especially important in football where context can be burried in the box score. We know that a five yard gain on 3rd & 4 is worth significantly more than a 10 yard gain on 4th & 12 and EPA will tell us that one of those two plays was far more valuable than the other. EPA can be calculated by taking the difference between the number of points a team was expected to score before a play and the number of points a team is expected to score after that play is over. The second metric that I've included is success rate. Success rate is defined as the percentage of plays where a team achieved a positive EPA.

All of the data below was retrieved via xflscrapR, a tool created by Keegan Abdoo and Caio Brighenti that was created to scrape play-by-play data from xfl.com. The EPA model was created with nflscrapR, an NFL web scraper. Since the nflscrapR EPA model is fitted for the NFL, these results should be taken with caution.

EPA stats are upadated through Week 5

Offensive Plays

Teams with a higher EPA and a higher success rate have better offenses.

  All   Dropback   Rush  
Team   EPA/Play Success
Rate
  EPA/Play Success
Rate
  EPA/Play Success
Rate
  Dropback
Ratio
HOU   +0.12 49.1%   +0.14 49.3%   +0.07 48.8%   72.5%
LA   +0.05 42.7%   +0.13 46.2%   -0.12 34.8%   69.5%
STL   +0.03 45.6%   +0.14 50.3%   -0.08 41.3%   47.3%
TB   -0.04 42.0%   -0.08 41.1%   +0.02 43.1%   55.6%
DC   -0.07 35.2%   -0.09 33.3%   -0.04 37.4%   53.9%
NY   -0.10 37.6%   -0.13 37.2%   -0.07 38.3%   60.5%
DAL   -0.10 45.2%   -0.15 44.3%   +0.02 47.8%   72.6%
SEA   -0.11 38.6%   -0.21 34.0%   +0.03 44.4%   55.8%
XFL   -0.03 42.2%   -0.03 42.5%   -0.02 41.8%   60.7%

Defensive Plays

Teams with a lower EPA and a lower success rate have better defenses.

  All   Dropback   Rush  
Team   EPA/Play Success
Rate
  EPA/Play Success
Rate
  EPA/Play Success
Rate
  Dropback
Ratio
HOU   -0.10 42.5%   -0.12 41.4%   -0.07 44.4%   60.8%
STL   -0.07 39.6%   -0.13 37.1%   +0.01 43.7%   61.9%
NY   -0.06 40.1%   -0.12 38.6%   +0.03 42.7%   64.2%
LA   -0.03 43.3%   -0.07 45.0%   +0.03 40.8%   60.6%
DC   -0.02 42.4%   -0.04 40.8%   +0.01 44.5%   55.9%
DAL   +0.01 42.2%   +0.09 43.4%   -0.10 40.5%   60.0%
TB   +0.02 39.7%   +0.09 41.2%   -0.10 36.8%   65.5%
SEA   +0.05 46.8%   +0.10 52.1%   -0.01 39.4%   58.1%
XFL   -0.03 42.2%   -0.03 42.5%   -0.02 41.8%   60.7%

Team Schedules

Below are my full-season forecasts for each XFL team. Click on each team to expand their schedule.

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @5pm ET
66.1% Fav by 4.7 L 9-15
2 Sun 2/16 @3pm ET
@ 46.9% Dog by 0.9 W 25-18
3 Sat 2/22 @5pm ET
@ 49.7% Dog by 0.1 W 24-12
4 Sun 3/1 @4pm ET
60.8% Fav by 3 L 20-27
5 Sat 3/7 @5pm ET
64.6% Fav by 4.2 L 12-30
6 Sun 3/15 @4pm ET
@ 38.6% Dog by 3.2
7 Sat 3/21 @2pm ET
@ 43.1% Dog by 1.9
8 Sun 3/29 @6pm ET
68.5% Fav by 5.4
9 Thu 4/2 @8pm ET
@ 28.9% Dog by 6.2
10 Thu 4/9 @8pm ET
59.4% Fav by 2.7

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @2pm ET
65.8% Fav by 4.5 W 31-19
2 Sat 2/15 @2pm ET
58.9% Fav by 2.5 W 27-0
3 Sun 2/23 @6pm ET
@ 56.8% Fav by 1.9 L 9-39
4 Sun 3/1 @7pm ET
@ 48.6% Dog by 0.4 L 0-25
5 Sun 3/8 @3pm ET
52.0% Fav by 0.5 W 15-6
6 Sun 3/15 @4pm ET
61.4% Fav by 3.2
7 Sun 3/22 @6pm ET
@ 30.8% Dog by 5.6
8 Sat 3/28 @2pm ET
63.6% Fav by 3.9
9 Sat 4/4 @2pm ET
@ 37.3% Dog by 3.6
10 Sun 4/12 @3pm ET
@ 39.7% Dog by 2.9

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @5pm ET
58.7% Fav by 2.5 W 37-17
2 Sun 2/16 @6pm ET
59.0% Fav by 2.5 W 28-24
3 Sat 2/22 @2pm ET
@ 46.5% Dog by 1 W 34-27
4 Sun 3/1 @4pm ET
@ 39.2% Dog by 3 W 27-20
5 Sat 3/7 @2pm ET
76.6% Fav by 8.3 W 32-23
6 Sat 3/14 @2pm ET
@ 47.9% Dog by 0.6
7 Sun 3/22 @6pm ET
69.2% Fav by 5.6
8 Sun 3/29 @3pm ET
@ 53.9% Fav by 1.1
9 Thu 4/2 @8pm ET
71.1% Fav by 6.2
10 Sat 4/11 @2pm ET
@ 63.5% Fav by 3.8

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @5pm ET
@ 41.3% Dog by 2.5 L 17-37
2 Sun 2/16 @3pm ET
53.1% Fav by 0.9 L 18-25
3 Sun 2/23 @6pm ET
43.2% Dog by 1.9 W 39-9
4 Sat 2/29 @2pm ET
@ 41.1% Dog by 2.5 L 14-17
5 Sun 3/8 @9pm ET
56.4% Fav by 1.8 W 41-34
6 Sun 3/15 @7pm ET
@ 50.5% Fav by 0.1
7 Sat 3/21 @5pm ET
@ 37.5% Dog by 3.6
8 Sun 3/29 @3pm ET
46.1% Dog by 1.1
9 Sun 4/5 @6pm ET
68.3% Fav by 5.3
10 Thu 4/9 @8pm ET
@ 40.6% Dog by 2.7

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @2pm ET
55.6% Fav by 1.6 W 23-3
2 Sat 2/15 @2pm ET
@ 41.1% Dog by 2.5 L 0-27
3 Sun 2/23 @3pm ET
@ 41.5% Dog by 2.4 L 9-29
4 Sat 2/29 @2pm ET
58.9% Fav by 2.5 W 17-14
5 Sat 3/7 @5pm ET
@ 35.4% Dog by 4.2 W 30-12
6 Sat 3/14 @2pm ET
52.1% Fav by 0.6
7 Sun 3/22 @3pm ET
@ 56.5% Fav by 1.8
8 Sat 3/28 @5pm ET
61.7% Fav by 3.3
9 Sat 4/4 @2pm ET
62.7% Fav by 3.6
10 Sun 4/12 @6pm ET
@ 48.8% Dog by 0.3

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sat 2/8 @2pm ET
@ 34.2% Dog by 4.5 L 19-31
2 Sat 2/15 @5pm ET
51.1% Fav by 0.3 W 17-9
3 Sat 2/22 @5pm ET
50.3% Fav by 0.1 L 12-24
4 Sat 2/29 @5pm ET
@ 30.1% Dog by 5.9 L 16-23
5 Sat 3/7 @2pm ET
@ 23.4% Dog by 8.3 L 23-32
6 Sun 3/15 @7pm ET
49.5% Dog by 0.1
7 Sun 3/22 @3pm ET
43.5% Dog by 1.8
8 Sun 3/29 @6pm ET
@ 31.5% Dog by 5.4
9 Sun 4/5 @6pm ET
@ 31.7% Dog by 5.3
10 Sat 4/11 @2pm ET
36.5% Dog by 3.8

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @5pm ET
@ 33.9% Dog by 4.7 W 15-9
2 Sun 2/16 @6pm ET
@ 41.0% Dog by 2.5 L 24-28
3 Sun 2/23 @3pm ET
58.5% Fav by 2.4 W 29-9
4 Sat 2/29 @5pm ET
69.9% Fav by 5.9 W 23-16
5 Sun 3/8 @3pm ET
@ 48.0% Dog by 0.5 L 6-15
6 Sat 3/14 @5pm ET
@ 46.3% Dog by 1
7 Sat 3/21 @5pm ET
62.5% Fav by 3.6
8 Sat 3/28 @5pm ET
@ 38.3% Dog by 3.3
9 Sun 4/5 @12pm ET
64.6% Fav by 4.2
10 Sun 4/12 @3pm ET
60.3% Fav by 2.9

Week Game Info Opponent Win Probability Point Spread Score
1 Sun 2/9 @2pm ET
@ 44.4% Dog by 1.6 L 3-23
2 Sat 2/15 @5pm ET
@ 48.9% Dog by 0.3 L 9-17
3 Sat 2/22 @2pm ET
53.5% Fav by 1 L 27-34
4 Sun 3/1 @7pm ET
51.4% Fav by 0.4 W 25-0
5 Sun 3/8 @9pm ET
@ 43.6% Dog by 1.8 L 34-41
6 Sat 3/14 @5pm ET
53.7% Fav by 1
7 Sat 3/21 @2pm ET
56.9% Fav by 1.9
8 Sat 3/28 @2pm ET
@ 36.4% Dog by 3.9
9 Sun 4/5 @12pm ET
@ 35.4% Dog by 4.2
10 Sun 4/12 @6pm ET
51.2% Fav by 0.3